AC Milan-Napoli: Preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds

It’s a battle between the two Italian titans, AC Milan and Napoli in the UEFA Champions League. Milan are coming into the match fresh from a shock 4-0 win over Napoli in their own backyard. Now, as the two sides face off in the Champions League first leg quarterfinal, there is high tension in both camps as Gli Azzurri look to avenge their loss.

Napoli have been dominant in the Serie A and abroad this season, but could struggle in the absence of the injured Victor Osimhen, who is also their top scorer. The Nigerian suffered an adductor injury and will likely miss the match.

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On the other hand, Milan have not been able to find consistency the entire season. Their victory over Napoli recently is their only league win in five matches, after which they drew Empoli scoreless.

AC Milan-Napoli

The match will be the first between AC Milan and Napoli in European competition. The drawback for Milan, however, is that they have performed poorly in recent times against Napoli across all competitions. Stefano Pioli’s side have won only once in their last nine home games against Napoli in all competitions. Their last victory was in the Coppa Italia quarter-final back in 2018-19.

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Napoli have won their last three away matches against Milan, all of which came in the Serie A. The three-game winning away streak is Napoli’s best-ever run against Milan. This leaves them with a 31/20 odd for victory. However, one cannot simply go by odds this time around as Milan, despite their poor home run, might just spring a surprise and come out on top.

Match preview

Napoli might be favourites to win the match, but their recent defeat to AC Milan in the Serie A means they come into this game under a lot of pressure. Nonetheless, the odds still say that AC Milan has a good chance of winning at home against a team that has largely steamrolled the competition at home and abroad.

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Milan have only managed to secure one win in their last six games across all competitions. Milan also missed a point to consolidate their place in the top four in the Serie A. They are placed fourth in the league with 52 points, one point behind Roma. Inter Milan (51) and Atalanta (48) are the two teams ahead. However, it won’t come as a surprise if they are able to snatch a win against Napoli.

Head-to-head record

In terms of head-to-head records, Milan has only managed nine wins in their last 33 matches against Napoli, while losing 13 games. There have been 11 draws.

  • AC Milan wins: 9

  • Napoli wins: 13

  • Draws: 11

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AC Milan vs Napoli prediction

Napoli come into the match as slight favourites (38.1%). Milan have a 33.9% chance of winning while there is a 28.0% chance of a draw. This keeps the match very much alive and anything could happen. Napoli have been handed a 67.2% chance of progressing to the semi-finals.

Prediction: AC Milan 0-1 Napoli

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Date, kick-off time, venue

The UEFA Champions League match between AC Milan and Napoli will be played at 8pm BST on Tuesday, April 11, 2023 and 12:30 am (IST) on April 13, 2023. The game will be played at the San Siro in Milan.

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