How to calculate football betting odds using Poisson distribution: Football betting, advantages, disadvantages

The odds of any score are calculated using the Poisson distribution, which takes into account both a team’s historical performance and league averages. The strength of each team’s offence and defence must first be determined, and they must then be multiplied by the league average. The Poisson formula is then used to calculate the probability of each score.

How to calculate football betting odds using Poisson distribution

Before we dive into how to calculate football betting odds using Poisson distribution, let us first try to understand what Poisson distribution is all about. A Poisson distribution in statistics is a probability distribution that is used to demonstrate how frequently an event is likely to happen over a given period of time. It is a count distribution, to put it another way.

In order to comprehend separate events that happen at a steady pace throughout the course of a certain period of time, poisson distributions are frequently utilised. Siméon Denis Poisson, a French mathematician, inspired its name.

Read More: Horse race betting India

Since the Poisson distribution is a discrete function, the variable can only take particular values from a list of (possibly endless) values. To put it another way, the variable is not capable of accepting any continuous range of values. The variable can only take whole number values (0, 1, 2, 3, etc.) for the Poisson distribution; it cannot take fractional or decimal values.

When a variable is a count variable, the Poisson distribution is best used in statistical analysis. An example would be the frequency of X given one or more explanatory variables. As an illustration, one might calculate how many defective goods will leave an assembly line given certain inputs.

Now, coming to how to calculate football betting odds using Poisson distribution, let’s examine a league match between Team A and Team B.

Calculating the average amount of goals each team is predicted to score throughout a game is the first stage. To do this, a value must be provided to each team’s offensive and defensive strength.

When calculating these values, it’s crucial to choose a relevant date range. If the range is too long or too short, the results could be affected by outliers or the current football industry’s rapid changes in non-playing and playing staff.

Read More: What is the difference between CFD and spread betting?

Additionally, a calculation is also done to determine the attack and defence strength of a team(s). This can be achieved by establishing the average number of goals scored per game by both the home and away teams.

However, the model has certain drawbacks, some of which are stated below:

  • Because the algorithm predicts future outcomes using historical data, it disregards managerial or squad changes.
  • The outcome is the sole variable that a Poisson model considers. Results provide the final score but do not always reflect what actually transpired throughout a game. For instance, there are many games where teams dominate yet only manage to win by one goal.
Read More: What does each-way mean in football betting?
  • Numerous things can happen before, during, and after the game to alter the outcome. This model doesn’t take into consideration factors like injuries, suspensions, physical condition, or weather, all of which might affect a team’s pregame likelihood. In the same way, factors like red cards or an away goal might change goal expectations once the game has begun; as a result, the team may use counterattacking strategies, etc.
  • This indicates that particular matches can have a tendency for high or low scoring outcomes, which can be helpful for gaining an advantage in the lower levels. Correlations like the condition of the pitch are also ignored.

Football betting

Before you begin betting on football, it’s crucial to understand that there are many different facets of the game that you may adjust your wager to. You must choose which game to bet on, the team you choose, the number of points you predict being scored, and the amount of money you are willing to risk before placing your wager.

Read More: How to make money from betting on football

While placing a football bet, you should be familiar with the point spread, moneyline, and over/under odds. The favoured team is given a minus and a number in the point spread. For your bet on the favourite team to win, they must do so by a margin greater than that number. If the underdog team defeats the spread or loses by fewer margins than the spread, the bet pays off.

The point spread is indicated as EVEN or PUSH if neither team is favoured. The wager is a push and both favoured team and underdog bettors will receive their stakes back if the favourite team triumphs by exactly the same margin as the spread.

The moneyline indicates how much you will win if your wager is successful. The number is listed after a negative next to the favourite. How much must be wagered in order to win INR 1000 is represented by this figure. The underdog is identified with a plus sign and a figure that indicates how much money will be won for every INR 1000 placed.

Read More: Betting meaning

The total score that both sides are expected to score in the contest is the over/under. In the NFL, the typical over/under ranges from 35 to 47 points. Either the over or under is an option for betting.

A straight bet is the most common kind of bet placed on a football game. Straight bets on teams that are evenly matched are typically made with 10/11 odds, or -110, which means that you are risking INR 1100 to possibly earn INR 1000. In other words, you will win INR 1000 and get your INR 1100 back if you win this bet, giving you a total payout of INR 2100. Straight bets are thought to offer the bettor a 50/50 chance.

The most common bet in football is spread betting most of the time. Spread betting entails giving one team a particular number of points while deducting an equal number of points from the other team. A team’s predicted win or loss margin is typically represented by the spread, which is effectively a handicap. The favourites are the teams with a negative number, and the underdogs are the teams with a positive spread. For instance, to cover the spread and make a bet on a team that is -3.5 profitable, the club would need to win by four or more points. In contrast, a team with a +3.5 rating can lose by three points or less, or even win, to cover the spread and collect the bet.

Read More: How to win live betting

Football betting advantages

Aside from the risk factor, football betting offers a number of advantages for punters especially if one follows the sport closely. It can be entertaining and offers you the opportunity to make money and expand your knowledge base of football. With that said, let’s take a brief look at some football betting advantages:

  • Earn profits: One of the main advantages of football betting is the potential to earn profits. If you make informed betting decisions and choose your bets carefully, you can make good money from your bets. While there are no guarantees of winning, with the right strategy, you can increase your chances of earning a profit.
  • Wide range of betting markets: Football betting offers a wide range of betting markets, allowing you to choose from a variety of options to suit your preferences. Whether you prefer to bet on the full-time result, total goals, or other markets, there are plenty of options to choose from.
Read More: Orbit Exchange betting platform
  • Easy to access: Football betting is accessible to anyone with an internet connection or access to a betting shop. You can easily place bets online or in-person, making it convenient and easy to participate in football betting.
  • Helps increase knowledge of the sport: By participating in football betting, you can increase your knowledge of the sport. This is because you will be more invested in the matches and will have a greater incentive to learn about the teams, players, and other aspects of the sport.
  • Numerous betting bonuses and promotions: Many bookmakers offer betting bonuses and promotions, such as free bets, enhanced odds, or cashback offers, which can increase the value of your bets and give you more opportunities to win.
Read More: What is Betting Exchange?

Football betting disadvantages

Aside from the advantages, there are a number of disadvantages that come with football betting. Here are some of them:

  • Can be addictive: One of the biggest disadvantages of football betting is the risk of addiction. Like other forms of gambling, football betting can be addictive, and some people may struggle to control their betting habits. This can lead to financial problems, relationship issues, and other negative consequences.
  • Risk of financial loss: Football betting involves placing real money bets, which means there is always a risk of losing money. Unlike investing, where the risk is often spread across multiple assets, betting on football matches involves a much higher level of risk.
Read More: How much can you make with matched betting?
  • Limited control over bets: When betting on football matches, you have little control over the outcome of the game. While you can use your knowledge of the teams and their form to make informed predictions, there are many factors that can influence the result of a match, such as injuries, weather conditions, and referee decisions.
  • Match fixing risks: While match fixing is relatively rare, it is still a concern in football betting. This is where individuals or groups attempt to influence the outcome of a match in their favour, often by bribing players, officials, or other individuals involved in the game.
Read More: Betting exchanges in India

Best sports betting exchanges

There are numerous best sports betting exchanges available online and the list endless. That said, let’s look at some of the best sports betting exchanges that are largely popular among punters:

Orbit Exchange: Orbit Exchange is a multi-market platform that is ideal for sports betting. The website is known for its user-friendly design, live betting options, and high liquidity.

Betfair: Betfair is a popular exchange that provides a wide range of markets with competitive odds.

Matchbook: Matchbook is a fairly new exchange that has gained popularity for its unique features and low commissions.

Smarkets: Smarkets offers high liquidity and a user-friendly interface, making it another popular choice among punters.

Read More: Best sports betting exchanges

Calculate football betting odds using Poisson distribution FAQs

Q: What is Poisson distribution?

Ans: The Poisson distribution is a statistical distribution that is often used to model the number of times an event occurs in a fixed time interval, given the average rate of occurrence.

Q: How is Poisson distribution used in football betting?

Ans: The Poisson distribution can be used to calculate the probability of different outcomes in a football match, such as the number of goals scored by each team. By using data to estimate the average number of goals scored by each team, the Poisson distribution can be used to calculate the likelihood of different scorelines.

Q: How to calculate betting odds with Poisson distribution?

Ans: Once the probabilities of different scorelines have been calculated using the Poisson distribution, these probabilities can be used to calculate the odds of different betting outcomes, such as the home team winning, the away team winning, or the match ending in a draw.

Q: Are there limitations using Poisson distribution for football betting?

Ans: Yes, there are several limitations to using the Poisson distribution for football betting. One limitation is that it assumes that goals are scored independently and at a constant rate, which may not always be the case in real-world football matches.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *